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CFL: Surprising Argos 10-point dogs at Montreal
2010-07-29
The Toronto Argonauts visit the Montreal Alouettes on Thursday as one of the most surprising stories of the young CFL season. At stake is a chance to claim sole possession of first place in the East Division. That might be the only reason to suspect a competitive game. Otherwise, most strength ratings, trends, and even the oddsmakers’ expect this to be a cakewalk for Montreal. Sportsbook.com lists the Alouettes as 10-point favorites. Can the Argos continue their unexpected surge or are the defending champs ready to put them in their place?
It was just last season when Toronto seemed destined for a lengthy rebuilding process, and an over-matched coaching staff lost the trust of its players and the control of a season. But the Argos have won three of their first four games in 2010 -- matching its total under the short-lived reign of coach Bart Andrus last year.
The Argos have won each of their last three games with a combination of stout defense and stellar special teams play -- the same kind of formula that delivered the franchise its last Grey Cup win, six years ago.
"We have a chance." offensive lineman Taylor Robertson said. "We believe. That's the difference."
Toronto rallied from a double-digit deficit to beat the B.C. Lions last week at Rogers Centre, nine days after squeaking out a 27-24 comeback win against the Calgary Stampeders. The Argos opened their run with a two-point win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Rookie running back Cory Boyd has established himself as the CFL's leading rusher, Chad Owens has been one of the league's most dynamic return men and only Calgary's defence has forced more turnovers. Boyd will be aiming to become the first Argos running back since Bill Symons in 1968 with four consecutive 100-yard games.
Those successes have helped to mask the struggles of first-year quarterback Cleo Lemon, whose offense ranks dead last in passing yards. Toronto is the only team in the league that has not thrown for at least 1,000 yards yet this season -- managing only 791.
In 2009, no team scored fewer points than the Argos, who were held below 20 points per game, on average. Toronto ranked last in rushing yards and second-last in passing yards. The team finished the season with a 3-15 record, missing the playoffs for the second straight year.
Andrus was fired in December, and the team officially announced it had hired Jim Barker two months later. The long-time CFL executive -- and former Argos head coach -- spent the rest of the winter rebuilding the team.
Toronto's new crew will certainly have a major test against the Alouettes. The defending Grey Cup champions have not lost a game at home since Oct. 29, 2008 and it was almost a year before that, Oct. 20, 2007, when Toronto last beat Montreal.
Since Toronto squeaked out that 16-9 win to salvage one game in the season series, the Argos have lost six straight games to the Alouettes by an average of a little more than 20 points.
According to oddsmakers and this week’s StatFox FoxSheet, bettors should expect much of the same on Thursday night. The StatFox Power Line shows that Montreal should be favored by about 21 points, rather than 10.
The Alouettes come in at 3-1, but unlike Toronto, who is being outscored by 1.3 PPG, are beating their opponents by an average of 8.5 PPG. That leads to a very significant trend going against the Argos:
• TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 16.7, OPPONENT 34.3 - (Rating = 1*)
Montreal has also been at its best against divisional foes during its recent run of success:
• MONTREAL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MONTREAL 35.8, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 1*)
Most handicapping data seems to suggest a blowout, but momentum, confidence, and perhaps a bit of luck could be on the side of Toronto. We’ll see what wins out when the teams kickoff at 7:30 PM ET on Thursday night in Montreal.
CFL Week 4 Betting Action
2010-07-23
The CFL schedule rolls on with another three games from Week 4 on Friday and Saturday. The resurgent Argonauts host British Columbia, Edmonton and Winnipeg will get together with each team trying to end losing skids, and Saskatchewan, the league’s lone remaining unbeaten team, will be in Calgary for a tough contest versus the 2-1 Stampeders. Let’s take a look at the games, and the current prices according to Sportsbook.com.
British Columbia (-2, 47) at Toronto, Friday, 5:30 p.m., TSN
Seems strange to think about now, but just a few short weeks ago, oddsmakers had Toronto (2-1) as 13.5-point underdogs in the season opener at Calgary. The Argos’ lines have dropped in each successive week since, as they’ve managed to put together upset wins over Winnipeg and Calgary. The latter was a home game and they’ll be back in Toronto for a second straight week with this game against B.C. (1-2)
The Argos still aren't getting a whole lot of respect from the oddsmakers though. They're at home and riding a two-game winning streak, while the Lions have lost two in a row. Yet, it is the Lions that are the favored team.
With the total set at 47, it could be a low-scoring game as neither team has been able to move the ball, the Argos are last with 287 yards of offense per game and Lions aren't much better with just 330. In addition, the B.C. defense ranks at or near the top of the league in scoring allowed (21.0) and yards per play allowed (6.7).
Most of the trend angles seem to favor B.C. here, as the Lions have been very good against opportunistic teams and bouncing back from losses…
• BRITISH COLUMBIA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +0.75 per game or better since 1996. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 29.7, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• Buono is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses as the coach of BRITISH COLUMBIA. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 33.5, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Toronto has forced nine turnovers in the first three games and if it can continue that pace has a good shot at winning this one as well.
Edmonton at Winnipeg (Pk, 54), Saturday 4:30 p.m., TSN
The biggest story surrounding the Edmonton-Winnipeg game is on the injury front for the Blue Bombers. Steven Jyles will start at quarterback for Winnipeg (1-2), with Buck Pierce out with a knee injury. Jyles didn't look out of place last week against Hamilton, but Pierce's experience will be missed. This will be Jyles’ second career start in five seasons in the CFL.
The Eskimos (0-3) failed to close out their past two games and have yet to score a single fourth-quarter point this year, this coming despite the fact that they are outgaining opponents by 15 YPG.
Arguably, the Eskimos have faced the three toughest teams in the league up till this point, and seem to be ready to break out on Saturday. The ball hasn’t exactly bounced their way this season yet either, as they are minus-5 in turnover ratio after three games.
There is one key thing to watch regarding the line for this game, since it has moved towards Edmonton since opening at Winnipeg favored by two. If it moves any further before kickoff to where the Eskimos are favored, this trend will be in place:
• WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was WINNIPEG 29.8, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS in its L4 games vs. Winnipeg.
Saskatchewan at Calgary (-1, 56.5), Saturday 7:30 p.m., TSN
The Saskatchewan Roughriders are the only undefeated team in the league, yet are road underdogs against a Stampeders’ team that looked awful in Toronto last week.
Still, this game pits the league's best offense (Saskatchewan) against the best defense (Calgary). The Roughriders lead in eight major offensive categories, while the Stampeders are ranked No. 1 in six defensive categories.
Oddsmakers are giving defense the edge, or perhaps home field, installing Calgary as the 1-point favorite.
Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant is the league’s MVP to this point and is leading an offense that has been both potent and balanced. The Roughriders are gaining 523 YPG on offense, 200 on the ground, 323 through the air. The 38.3 PPG they are averaging are reflective of that potency. However, the Saskatchewan defense has had a world of trouble stopping teams and is allowing a brutal 8.2 yards per play. That sets up Calgary for a nice opportunity according to this StatFox Power Trend:
• CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=7.2 yards/play over the last 3 seasons. The average score was CALGARY 33.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 0*)
However, head-to-head history is on the side of the visitors here, as Saskatchewan is 7-2-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings with Calgary.
The StatFox Power Ratings indicate the wrong team is favored here, showing Saskatchewan should be minus-2.
CFL: Defending champs finally open home slate
2010-07-22
The Montreal Alouettes have spent the first three weeks of the 2010 CFL season on the road, winning twice. Thursday night will be their first chance to commemorate their Grey Cup title of last November with their fans. Strangely, oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com don’t seem to be treating that motivation as an important factor, as Montreal is only a 7-point favorite over a 1-2 Hamilton team that it has beaten in 12 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings.
It truly is an unusual line considering how well the Alouettes play at Percival Molson Stadium, where they were undefeated last season before going on to win the Grey Cup with a nailbiter victory over the Roughriders. The Alouettes wanted their first three games to be on the road to allow time to finish their stadium's expansion from 20,000 to 25,000 seats, with a new deck on the south side and permanent bleachers in the east end zone. They delay was precautionary, as nearly all the work has been done for a month and they were able to play a pre-season game in the refurbished venue.
Perhaps the factor that is keeping Thursday night’s line down is how badly Montreal is being gashed defensively in the early season. Through three games, the Alouettes have allowed 29.7 points per game, second most in the CFL, and 453.3 yards per game, worst in the league. They also are just 1-2 against the spread, with the only cover coming against winless Edmonton. Last week’s defensive effort in the 16-12 win at British Columbia was encouraging though, as the Montreal defense yielded just seven yards rushing and 260 overall.
Hamilton has squared off twice with Winnipeg in the early going, splitting two 20-point plus decisions. Last week at home, the Ti-Cats broke out with a season high 435 yards of offense en route to a 28-7 decision. Hamilton is currently ranked 3rd defensively in both points and yards allowed.
Montreal has had little trouble scoring points on Hamilton in recent head-to-head play. In fact, you have to go back to November ’05 for the last matchup in which the Alouettes failed to reach the 20-point mark. In that 13-game span, they have averaged 33.8 PPG while going 12-1 SU & 6-7 ATS. Ironically, eight of the 13 games have gone under the total despite Montreal’s offensive prowess. That would seem to coincide with this significant StatFox Trend in play for the contest:
• HAMILTON is 21-6 UNDER (+14.4 Units) versus very good offensive teams - scoring 32 or more points/game since 1996. The average score was HAMILTON 19.8, OPPONENT 29.6 - (Rating = 2*)
Kickoff for the Thursday contest is set for 7:30 PM ET. The StatFox Power Line estimates that the pointspread should be Montreal by 11.
Maybe the most puzzling thought when you consider Montreal’s success against Hamilton, its dominance at home, and its improving defense is that the line for this game opened at Montreal -8.5, and has since been bet down to the 7-point mark. We’ll see if bettors are on to something or if the Alouettes were just waiting to get back home.
CFL: CFL underdog winners of Week 1 square off (10:00 PM ET, TSN)
2010-07-09
Three of the opening weekend CFL games resulted in underdogs winning outright. Two of them, Saskatchewan and British Columbia square off in an intriguing Week 2 contest Saturday night. Of course, one of the teams has to move to the role of favorite for this game, and the host Lions do so, laying 2-points with a total of 52.5 according to Sportsbook.com. Let’s take a closer look at the game, which happens to be the FREE FoxSheet of the Week.
Saskatchewan comes off a season opening win over defending champ Montreal, a 54-51 double-overtime decision which may wind up going down as the game of the year when the season’s all said and done in November. In that game, Roughriders’ QB Darian Durant threw for 478 yards, leading an offensive outburst that produced 657 yards in all. Not bad for a team that went into the game as a 3.5-point home dog.
British Columbia’s opening win was more about old fashioned football, defense and the ground game, as the Lions knocked off Edmonton, 25-10, on the road. Running back Jamal Robertson led the charge, carrying the ball 11 times for 168 yards with a touchdown. B.C. was also a 3-1/2 point dog in Week 1. Perhaps most important to B.C.’s opening week effort was the solid performance put in by new quarterback Casey Printers, who threw for 218 yards on 20 for 34 passing.
In looking at some of the key bullet points from this report, you’ll find several key bits of info, all seeming to side with the visiting Roughriders.
First, take a look at this system indicating to fade home favorites off an early season divisional win:
• Play Against - Home favorites (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - off a win over a division rival, in the first half of the season. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Game Estimator and Power Line both indicate that Saskatchewan should be about a 4-point road favorite here. The simulation calls for a 29-25 win on average. It is a rare but good sign when the two models agree exactly on the expected margin of win.
From a trend perspective, Saskatchewan has been good of the road versus division foes and in early season games:
• SASKATCHEWAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 22.6, OPPONENT 26.9 - (Rating = 0*)
• SASKATCHEWAN is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.1, OPPONENT 26.5 - (Rating = 1*)
It sure appears from all intents and purposes that oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com may have this one wrong on the side. As far as the total is concerned, note that Saskatchewan is on a 9-1 under run in road divisional games, and the last five games between these teams in B.C. have gone UNDER the total.
Kickoff is set for 10:00 PM ET on Saturday night on TSN.
PROFITS DROP AT FOOTBALL POOLS GROUP
2010-04-05
Online casino, bingo and poker division underperforms
The predominently football pools betting group Sportech plc has unveiled a disappointing set of numbers that show the group's nlne casino poker and bingo operations have been underperforming, affecting overall operating profit, which fell by 14 percent to GBP 19.5 million over the year 2009. EBITDA dropped by 12 percent to GBP 14.7 million.
“That the decline in profitability is due primarily to our continued investment in establishing our online football pools business and the underperformance of our e-gaming business is testament to the resilience of the business in these tough times," said chief executive Ian Penrose, giving an assurance that strong action has been taken to address the underperformance.
Operating highlights included Sportech’s acquisition of Scientific Games Racing (SGR), the pari-mutuel technology provider and venue management business division of US giant Scientific Games, and a joint venture in India with Playwin, the Indian lottery and gaming brand owned by Essel Group (see previous InfoPowa reports).
“The strategic acquisition of SGR, together with our entry into the Indian market in partnership with one of India’s leading organisations, offers a unique opportunity to build a profit focused, global gaming business from strong pari-mutuel sporting and technology foundations,” said Penrose.
Sportech secured GBP 90.8 million in revised banking facilities valid to 2013 at the end of 2009, giving the group the flexibility to grow organically and make acquisitions, the chief executive said.
MAJOR NEW FOOTBALL ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN COMING FROM WILL HILL
2010-04-05
New advertising agency shows its paces
UK football fans can expect an avalanche of new William Hill advertisements this weekend as the company launches its latest football campaign - the first created by its new agency The Bank.
The marketing publication Drum reports that the London-based ad agency was tasked at the beginning of March with reinforcing the brand’s association with football ahead of this year’s World Cup in South Africa, with the campaign target the positioning of William Hill as the ‘home of betting’.
The creative idea will run across all media activity at regional level, handled by both The Bank and the in-house marketing department.
The television element was produced by the agency’s in-house production department and directed by creative founder Ian Cassie.
Kristof Fahy, brand and marketing director at William Hill, told The Drum: “We are trusted – with over 75 years of experience and a huge presence both on the high street and online. Simply put we are the home of betting in the UK and as such, we have a unique place in the minds of the British public.
"This next period of activity will coincide with our continued drive to offer customers an unrivalled experience online, on the phone and on the high street. The Bank showed the kind of strategic insight and clarity of creative thinking we are looking for.”
Cassie added: ”Our task has been to take all the great things that the William Hill brand stands for and re-present it in a creative idea that is unique, flexible and persuasive which can work as effectively in a TV spot as on a betting slip.”
CFB: BCS Championship Game: TEXAS vs. ALABAMA (8:10 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-07
Only one of the last five BCS Championship games was decided by single digits. That game was also the last time the title contest was held in Pasadena. Texas is hoping for an encore performance of that magical night, a 41-38 upset of USC behind quarterback Vince Young. It’s Colt McCoy’s turn now, as he plays his final game for the Longhorns. They are the underdog though, of 3.5-points according to Sportsbook.com. The line has generated heavy action, and over 80% of it has come in on Alabama, according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
He is undefeated in bowl games, part of a five-game bowl winning streak for head coach Mack Brown’s club. Alabama hopes to make the SEC proud by giving the league its sixth title game SU and ATS victory versus no defeats. The Crimson Tide are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their L8 bowl games, though. They are 5.5-point favorites and the chalk has won two straight title games, snapping a stretch of five straight upsets.
Alabama and Texas have racked up quite a few trophies during the past month. Both teams desperately want to add one more.
In a star-studded, powerhouse matchup of unbeaten teams, the top-ranked Crimson Tide and No. 2 Longhorns meet for the BCS championship at the Rose Bowl on Thursday night.
While fellow undefeated teams TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State may have felt slighted by being shut out of the title game, the BCS could not have delivered a more high-profile matchup. Coach Nick Saban's Tide feature Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and six first-team All-Americans, while Mack Brown's Longhorns rely on star quarterback Colt McCoy and an equally loaded roster.
Texas (13-0) is seeking its second BCS championship in five years.
Texas, though, faces a daunting task against Alabama (13-0), which dominated defending BCS champion Florida 32-13 in the SEC title game Dec. 5, snapping the then-No. 1 Gators' 22-game winning streak.
No Tide player had more success this season than Ingram, who rushed for a school-record 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns. The sophomore ran for 113 yards and three scores against Florida to help him claim college football's highest individual honor - the first Heisman for an Alabama player.
Ingram is hoping to lead Alabama to its first national title since 1992.
While the Tide try to pound Texas into submission with a ground game that ranks 12th nationally with 215.8 yards per game, their focus on defense will be McCoy.
The senior, who returned to school this year with hopes of winning a national championship, threw for 3,512 yards and 27 touchdowns while completing 70.5 percent of his passes. The Maxwell Award winner as the nation's best all-around player, who also won the Walter Camp player of the year award, McCoy directs a passing attack that was tied for 14th in the nation with 279.7 yards a game.
McCoy's top target is receiver Jordan Shipley, who had 106 catches for 1,363 yards and 11 scores, though Malcolm Williams, James Kirkendoll and Dan Butler all contributed at least 445 yards receiving.
McCoy also was Texas' second-leading rusher with 348 yards behind Tre' Newton (513), and Cody Johnson rushed for 12 touchdowns. The Longhorns' deep and versatile attack, though, should get its stiffest test of the season from an imposing Alabama defense.
Paced by Butkus Award winner Rolando McClain, the Tide were No. 1 in the country in scoring defense at 11.0 points per game and second in total defense at 241.8 yards a contest. McClain piled up a team-high 101 tackles - 12 1/2 for a loss - along with four sacks and two interceptions.
Alabama boasts a formidable secondary, led by Javier Arenas (12 tackles for loss, five sacks) and Mark Barron (seven interceptions). Sophomore defensive end Marcell Dareus recorded a team-high 6 1/2 of the Tide's 31 sacks.
Defense isn't exactly a weak spot for the Longhorns, either. They ranked first in the country with 62.9 rushing yards allowed per contest and third with 251.8 yards given up per game.
That could put pressure on Alabama's efficient quarterback, Greg McElroy, to come up with a big performance. The junior, who passed for 2,450 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions, faces a Texas team allowing 188.9 yards per game through the air - 23rd in the nation.
The Longhorns topped the Football Bowl Subdivision with 24 interceptions, led by junior Earl Thomas with eight - tied for second in the country - and fellow safety Blake Gideon with five. Texas forced those INTs in part because of a pass rush that racked up 41 sacks, paced by Sam Acho (nine) and Lamarr Houston (seven).
The Longhorns, of course, barely made it to Pasadena, narrowly avoiding an upset by Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game with a 13-12 victory Dec. 5. Hunter Lawrence kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired after McCoy and Texas nearly allowed the clock to run out on an incomplete pass on the previous play.
A 2008 loss to Texas Tech, coming on an improbable touchdown pass with 1 second left, likely kept the Longhorns from playing for the championship.
Texas did not handle Nebraska's fierce pass rush well, allowing McCoy to be sacked nine times, and Brown hinted at lineup changes after what he saw as a team-wide subpar performance against the Cornhuskers - especially with Alabama's formidable pass rush up next.
Alabama has played in an NCAA-record 57 bowl games and is tied with USC for the most wins with 31. Texas has the second-most bowl appearances with 49.
The Longhorns have dominated the Tide in eight meetings, going 7-0-1. The last matchup came in the 1982 Cotton Bowl, a 14-12 Texas win.
StatFox Steve has this to say about the game: Ask yourself this…throughout this entire season, was there ever a point where you said: Alabama is clearly this year’s national champion? Now sure the Tide has looked dominant at points, but there were also several times where their offense looked like a middle of the pack unit. Texas certainly never had that problem up until the Big 12 championship game. The key is the Longhorns still won, thus setting up a battle of unbeaten teams. In that sense, is one team clearly better than the other here? I say no, and in a game of such high stakes, laying the points with the lesser offensive club just doesn’t make sense. The StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings show Texas at +28.5, Alabama at +22.7. The wrong team may be favored.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Series Trend: It’s no secret that the SEC is in search of its fourth straight national title. What people might not know, however, is that SEC teams have never lost in the BCS Championship game in five tries overall, three times pulling the upset as underdogs. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five title games. If the Big 12 has anything going in its favor, and Texas in particular, it’s that the last time this game was played in Pasadena was the famed Texas win over USC in ’05.